Some thoughts on ownership, use and charging of EVs
Some data points:
- there are >30m cars on (or not on at the time of writing) UK roads
- a very small %age are EV (c.1%) though new car registrations much higher
- a very large %age (55-65%) are fleet vehicles, as in volume purchased
- there are >30,000 connectors at >15,000 devices @ >10,000 locations
- a tiny %age are ultra-rapid
Fleet vehicles move into the private market in <3 years; ergo, fleet goes EV, private market follows. And there are all these benefits too right? As others have pointed out it ain't quite that simple owing to the differing usage and resulting energy demand models in the fleet and private sectors, despite the level of the grey fleet market (though this from 2016).
There are less than 10,000 fuel stations in UK with between 4 and 20 pumps and even when you queue you can generally be in and out with a full tank and a hot coffee in under 15 minutes. People rarely run out or blame having to stop for fuel for being late to events, though the coffee stain is another thing - you really should have waited. There is a perception that EV ownership or use carries with it that explicit risk, except you'll have plenty of time for a coffee and check your mail, stretch your legs, ease your back, eat less badly, get some vitamin D etc.
So say the road warriors, even if they ogle and wonder when they see magazine appraisals of EVs and their ownership. They comfort themselves with tales of Lithium shortages, the wait for battery manufacturing, unmeetable energy demand patterns, range anxiety, non-standardised connectors, unreliable chargers, where the hell are they, "I won't be able to get near a lamp-post", living in apartments, absence of off-road parking (6.8m households), theft ("who'd leave a cable connected to a charger while I have dinner or let along overnight in my street"), random un-plugging, bullying and so on.
Many EVs already have partial automation, those coming down the track will have more, far more and coming over the horizon is an entirely different model of vehicle ownership, usage and charging so let's get thinking, planning, preparing (handy it turns out) and building out capability that accommodates and delivers to that future.
In that future, bearing in mind that the vast majority of us do get home every night:
- you won't need your own charger
- you won't even need to know where the nearest charger is
(c)newmobility
That's right your EV, if it is even yours, will just go off to the nearest one when it's available and come back when it's done or even go and top itself up while you're about your business, playing squash, shopping, whatever if/when it "spots" a slot and monitors your movements to be back in time. Or then again it might be a different EV there when you come out! You might not be able to tell. Or your Settings may have you get the Leisure rather than Work variant coming home late on a Friday. Way beyond ride sharing or conventional car sharing. Suggestions that of 10s of 000s of chargers will be needed are likely to be unfounded as battery life lengthens. software gets smarter, usage patterns change, renewables based distributed grids align with demand patterns, the ownership paradigm decays and PAYG emerges.
Before you start there are plenty of holes in that vision, today, but when you think that average vehicle utilisation is below 5%, what is it doing the other 95% of the time!? They can store excess power from renewable energy sources, domestic, office or grid and even provide it back the other way or in the dark days of winter schedule themselves for a charge and perhaps even a service (there are so few moving parts it is more likely in a post Covid-19 world that it's a clean that will be in order).
And if we're learning anything at the moment is that the road and air warriors days may well be done. Far more widespread WFH (or WFA) and video-conferencing will become common-place (as will the resulting bluer skies, lower pollution, reduced RTAs (and associated health service and domestic impacts) etc); local hubs with shared services and networking spaces will feature in new mixed use developments and likely occupy lost retail space with other implications for energy demand as well as opening up a new co-creation and innovation dynamic. Cycling and walking to work will further disincentivise multi-car ownership. This does have implications for the trickle down fleet model as well as at least 73 others for a more autonomous future.
The challenges this living, transport and energy future pose, this slowly emerging new normal, are location centric. Placement of generation and charging infrastructure in an autonomous EV world is essentially a geospatial question to name but one. And so of course is high precision, real time dynamic positioning of you, your EV/CAV and the live, planned and predicted environment. Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, it all takes time and care of course, in the UK currently under the auspices of the CCAV, but some food for thought.
- there are >30m cars on (or not on at the time of writing) UK roads
- a very small %age are EV (c.1%) though new car registrations much higher
- a very large %age (55-65%) are fleet vehicles, as in volume purchased
- there are >30,000 connectors at >15,000 devices @ >10,000 locations
- a tiny %age are ultra-rapid
Fleet vehicles move into the private market in <3 years; ergo, fleet goes EV, private market follows. And there are all these benefits too right? As others have pointed out it ain't quite that simple owing to the differing usage and resulting energy demand models in the fleet and private sectors, despite the level of the grey fleet market (though this from 2016).
There are less than 10,000 fuel stations in UK with between 4 and 20 pumps and even when you queue you can generally be in and out with a full tank and a hot coffee in under 15 minutes. People rarely run out or blame having to stop for fuel for being late to events, though the coffee stain is another thing - you really should have waited. There is a perception that EV ownership or use carries with it that explicit risk, except you'll have plenty of time for a coffee and check your mail, stretch your legs, ease your back, eat less badly, get some vitamin D etc.
So say the road warriors, even if they ogle and wonder when they see magazine appraisals of EVs and their ownership. They comfort themselves with tales of Lithium shortages, the wait for battery manufacturing, unmeetable energy demand patterns, range anxiety, non-standardised connectors, unreliable chargers, where the hell are they, "I won't be able to get near a lamp-post", living in apartments, absence of off-road parking (6.8m households), theft ("who'd leave a cable connected to a charger while I have dinner or let along overnight in my street"), random un-plugging, bullying and so on.
Many EVs already have partial automation, those coming down the track will have more, far more and coming over the horizon is an entirely different model of vehicle ownership, usage and charging so let's get thinking, planning, preparing (handy it turns out) and building out capability that accommodates and delivers to that future.
In that future, bearing in mind that the vast majority of us do get home every night:
- you won't need your own charger
- you won't even need to know where the nearest charger is
That's right your EV, if it is even yours, will just go off to the nearest one when it's available and come back when it's done or even go and top itself up while you're about your business, playing squash, shopping, whatever if/when it "spots" a slot and monitors your movements to be back in time. Or then again it might be a different EV there when you come out! You might not be able to tell. Or your Settings may have you get the Leisure rather than Work variant coming home late on a Friday. Way beyond ride sharing or conventional car sharing. Suggestions that of 10s of 000s of chargers will be needed are likely to be unfounded as battery life lengthens. software gets smarter, usage patterns change, renewables based distributed grids align with demand patterns, the ownership paradigm decays and PAYG emerges.
Before you start there are plenty of holes in that vision, today, but when you think that average vehicle utilisation is below 5%, what is it doing the other 95% of the time!? They can store excess power from renewable energy sources, domestic, office or grid and even provide it back the other way or in the dark days of winter schedule themselves for a charge and perhaps even a service (there are so few moving parts it is more likely in a post Covid-19 world that it's a clean that will be in order).
And if we're learning anything at the moment is that the road and air warriors days may well be done. Far more widespread WFH (or WFA) and video-conferencing will become common-place (as will the resulting bluer skies, lower pollution, reduced RTAs (and associated health service and domestic impacts) etc); local hubs with shared services and networking spaces will feature in new mixed use developments and likely occupy lost retail space with other implications for energy demand as well as opening up a new co-creation and innovation dynamic. Cycling and walking to work will further disincentivise multi-car ownership. This does have implications for the trickle down fleet model as well as at least 73 others for a more autonomous future.
The challenges this living, transport and energy future pose, this slowly emerging new normal, are location centric. Placement of generation and charging infrastructure in an autonomous EV world is essentially a geospatial question to name but one. And so of course is high precision, real time dynamic positioning of you, your EV/CAV and the live, planned and predicted environment. Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, it all takes time and care of course, in the UK currently under the auspices of the CCAV, but some food for thought.
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